Blackjack win percentage. All the totals for hands remain equal—so a player’s 20 will beat a dealer’s 19 equally as often as a dealer’s 20 beats a player’s 19, and the dealer will bust as often as the player while the other stands on a viable hand. How to Win at Blackjack — and Walk Out Of the Casino Alive. Mix 6 decks of cards together) Blackjack pays 3 to 2. By steering him to tables where he’s got greater than even odds of.

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Understanding the odds is a major factor in becoming a successful player at blackjack. Blackjack is one of the only casino games that is beatable, meaning that by acquiring the right skills, players can swing the advantage into their favor.

Article Highlights:

Gaining The Advantage | Strategy | Event Frequency | House Rules | Summary

Gaining The Advantage

An important step in mastering blackjack is learning how to play using basic strategy. Players who rely solely on hunches and gut feelings to play will likely give up a much greater edge to the house. Basic strategy is relatively easy to learn and anyone can do this with a little practice online. Learning to play blackjack using perfect basic strategy will reduce a casino's edge to a mere 0.80% - the second lowest among all table games - and slightly to far better odds than those offered at roulette tables and slot machines, respectively.

Blackjack is a dependent variable game, meaning that as each card is dealt from the deck(s), the odds of any remaining card - like an Ace or 10 - coming up next is constantly changing. If you're playing a single deck game, before any cards have been dealt, you know that the odds of any Ace being dealt are 4 out of 52. If the first two cards dealt are both Aces, then there is only a 2 out of 50 (or 1 in 25) chance that the next card will be another Ace. Over time, experts have used computer simulations to determine that high cards like Aces and Tens are beneficial to the player, and conversely, small cards are good for the dealer. If you are able to keep track of which cards have left the deck, you would obviously stand a better chance at knowing which cards remain, hence which ones are most likely to be dealt on the next draw. This is where the house edge is nullified, and the player begins to build a small, yet sizable edge over the house. Such is the advantage of becoming a skilled blackjack player.

While there are some differences between online blackjack and blackjack at land-based casinos - perhaps most notably the use of continuous shuffle at some online casinos - this article focuses mainly on the basics, which can be applied to most versions of the game.

Adjustments In Strategy

Once you have learned basic strategy, and then how to track the count while playing, the next step is to vary your playing strategy to account for the current game odds at any given moment. If you know that the deck is loaded with face cards, you might not want to hit on 12 against the dealer's up card of 10, knowing that there is an increased likelihood that you will bust. If the deck has lots of tens, you may decide to risk doubling on 11 against a dealer's Ace, even though basic strategy says not to. It is small modifications in play that will cut into the house's edge and put those percentage points on your side.

Other variations in play include changing your betting level. If the odds favor the player, bet bigger. If they favor the dealer, bet smaller. This is common knowledge, but mastering the art of knowing when and how to bet is a key factor in becoming a skilled player. Something to keep in mind is that while adjusting your bets according to the odds at any given time, do so in a reasonable manner. This means avoiding the rapid escalation of bets when the odds shift into your favor. Regardless of whether you're playing real money blackjack at the Borgata in Atlantic City, or a game of multi-player at your favorite online casino, if you jump from 10 to 100 units a hand, chances are someone will notice. Pit personnel are trained to keep an eye out for exactly this sort of thing, so you will need to moderate or disguise your betting. If the odds are in your favor and you win a hand, double your next bet, or raise it by one unit. This is a very natural betting pattern that any player might use, and much less likely to draw unwanted attention. Also note that many online casinos' software employ mathematical algorithms that are programmed to detect wild swings in betting. So, since there is no pit boss to give you the boot at your own computer, the odds of many blackjack games at online casinos do not favor the player when making a large escalation in bet from one hand to the next. Stick with a similar raising strategy to what you'd use at a land casino, and you will be better off.

Event Frequency

Another important factor in blackjack mastery is knowing how often certain events occur. Maybe you've wondered how often blackjacks come up, or what the win/loss/tie breakdown is between players and the house. On average, a player will win 44% of the time, the dealer 48% and 8% of hands will result in a tie. With these odds, you might logically deduce that a player will lose more money than he or she will win. However, you must also take into account the built-in player advantages that blackjack offers like doubling down, splitting, and the fact that blackjack pays out at 3 to 2. While you will likely end up losing more hands than you win, you should just about break even monetarily, because you win more when you do win. If you win a double down, you get twice what you would expect than for winning only one hand, but it still counts as a single win for the player. Also, if the dealer gets a blackjack, you lose only your initial bet, instead of 1½ times the bet, which is what a player wins by getting a blackjack.

The event frequency chart to the right shows us that both the player and the dealer can expect a blackjack at a rate of 1 out of every 20 hands, or 5% of the time. An important thing to remember is that when a dealer shows an Ace, odds are that he or she will make a blackjack 32% of the time, meaning there won't be one the other 68% of the time. If the dealer has an Ace showing, you will be asked if you would like to take the insurance bet, which pays 2 to 1. Since the dealer will not have a blackjack 68% of the time, that's about how often you can expect to lose this bet, thus reinforcing why basic strategy says never to take the insurance bet. So when should you take the insurance bet? Only when you're an expert card counter, and the plus count is sky high, letting you know that the odds are actually in favor of the dealer having a ten card under that Ace. Even then, it is still a risky proposition, so, as a wise guy might say: 'fuhgeddaboudit'!

House Rules' Effect For Players

If you've played blackjack in more than one location, odds are the rules of the game had slight variations. Las Vegas Strip rules are different from Downtown Las Vegas rules which are different from Atlantic City rules which are different from online blackjack rules and so on. So why is there no international standard for blackjack table rules? Basically, casinos like to be able to make small changes in their games to either attract or deter certain types of players. While probably more than half of the tourists and other recreational players only bother to look or inquire about a game's rules as far as the table minimum, smart players know that particular rules have direct relationships on the player's edge. Certain rules impact the edge favorably for players, others add to the house advantage. Looking for a game that has good rules is another important factor in improving your odds.

The house rules chart (to the right) shows us what percentage (positive or negative) different rule variations commonly found at today's casinos will have on a player. Starting at the top, definitely avoid all games where the dealer wins ties. This gives the house a big edge. Next, the lower the number of decks being used, the better the odds for players. Regardless of whether you're playing basic strategy, counting cards, or just guessing, single and double deck games give you better odds of winning. When you play multiple deck blackjack games dealt from a shoe, a blank card (usually colored red or yellow) will be inserted towards the end of the stack. All cards up to this card will be dealt during the game. Once the card is reached, it is time to shuffle. Depending on where the card is placed, the odds will improve or decrease for players. This is known as 'penetration'. Closer to the end of the stack (deeper penetration) is good for players because more cards will come out of the shoe during a game, meaning you have greater chances of predicting the remaining cards as the game progresses. Shallow penetration is bad for the player for the opposite reason. If the marker card is left only halfway into the stack, the odds of predicting what will be drawn next is greatly reduced. Taking it a step further, by playing single and double deck games, you can eliminate this scenario almost entirely as all the cards are usually dealt out.

Going back to the chart, you can see that being able to double on only 10 and 11 has a negative effect for the player, while being able to double on three or more cards and doubling after splits has a positive effect. Look for games where the dealer stand on all 17s - which are pretty common at most land casinos. Avoid games where the dealer does not take a second card until after the players are done. While surrender has a positive effect for players, it is rarely found these days, and even more rarely utilized properly. For more information on surrender, see our blackjack frequently asked questions section. Lastly, try to find games where you are allowed to re-split aces. Most games give you but a single card on each Ace when you split them, and do not allow resplitting of Aces. If you get an Ace on top of your split Ace, naturally you would want to split again, rather than stand on a 12, so this rule can have a big impact on player odds.

Summary

Blackjack is a fun and exciting casino game that is popular with players largely because it is beatable. Become a skilled player and the odds will shift into your favor, giving you a positive expectation of winning. This means that over time, playing blackjack will result in more winning sessions and less losing ones. Understanding basic strategy and counting techniques are critical to your success, but also having good betting strategy and knowing how rules impact the odds is equally important. Little things like these help players. Before you start playing you should also check at least one reliable comparison of online blackjack sites. Be sure to at least learn basic strategy, and then you will likely be better skilled than 80% of all blackjack players worldwide. All it takes is a little practice.

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The practice of how to count cards requires a fair amount of concentration, but is easier than its name implies: a player must observe the cards as they are dealt, keep track of a running total, and adjust the wager accordingly.

Card counting is, as the name indicates, a technique of counting the cards that have already been dealt to have an estimation, by their absence, of those that remain to be dealt from the deck. Various systems have been developed for counting cards, none of which require a photographic memory or a genius IQ. That being said its still a blackjack advanced strategy. All a player needs do is to keep track of a running total that reflects whether the remainder of the shoe is favourable, by a relatively simple system that’s accessible to a person of average intelligence. That running total, or “count,” leads the player to increase his bets when the deck is in his favor and decrease them (or leave the game) when it is in favour of the house.

Is Card Counting Illegal?

The practice of card counting is discouraged by casinos, which have succeeded in casting the practice in a negative light to the point that many players erroneously believe that it is illegal. Where it is permissible for casinos to do so, they will gladly eject a player who counts cards (or ban card counters altogether). However, this is all a marketing campaign on the part of the casinos to discourage players from making the smart bet. Simply stated, card counting is NOT ILLEGAL, nor can it fairly be considered a form of cheating.

Cheating is, by definition, an intrusion that offsets the odds. A cheater may cooperate with the dealer, alter equipment, use sleight of hand to increase his wager or switch his cards after the deal, or in other ways actively alter the situation or circumvent the rules to force the odds in his favour. The card counter, meanwhile, merely observes phenomena that are visible to anyone at the table under normal circumstances. When the natural course of events happens to turn in his favour, he makes the best of it. This does not violate the rules of the game or alter the situation at all, any more than a sports bettor who considers the past performance of a team before placing a wager for or against them.

Neither does card counting guarantee a victory. Even in situations where the deck seems to favour the player by a wide margin, the order and value of the cards remain random. Regardless of the “weight” of the deck, the cards will fall as they may. There is a higher likelihood of winning in some situations, and the card counter will increase his wager accordingly—but the possibility of losing always remains.

For these reasons, casinos have been unsuccessful in their attempts to lobby for legislation or win court cases against card counters. The practice remains completely legal. In locations where a casino is permitted to refuse service to anyone, card counters are actively pursued, expelled, and banned from the premises. Simply put, the house does not want to serve the gambler who stands a good, or even fair, chance of winning.

How To Count Cards In Blackjack

It is not necessary, as some assume, to keep track of every card that has been dealt. Though it would be useful to know the exact number of each value that remain, it is not necessary and beyond the capabilities of the average (or even reasonably intelligent) player to do so. The blackjack card counting strategy relies on an estimate of the value of the cards that have been dealt, as an indication of the ones that remain to be dealt.

Double Deck Blackjack Odds

This tutorial is based on the High-Low counting system: two, three, four, five, and six cards are valued at +1; seven, eight, and nine are 0; and all ten-value cards and aces are valued at -1. Other counting systems are available (discussed in alternate counting systems), but the High-Low system is one of the easiest to follow, and sufficiently effective in practice.

By this system, and others, low cards “add” to the count and high cards “subtract” from it. This is because the removal of low cards from the deck increases the number of high cards left to be dealt, and vice versa – and a higher proportion of high cards in the deck favour the player.

Learning How To Count Cards

To keep the count, a player must note the cards as they are dealt, and keep a running total in mind. One method of doing this is by noting the value of each card as it is overturned and keeping a constant tally of the total:

While this is effective as a training method, the resulting physical behaviors—constant eye and head movement during the deal—is a very obvious signal to casino personnel (dealer, pit boss, surveillance crew) that the player is a card counter.

A better technique is to observe the value of each hand as it is played, as it is common for even leisure players to watch as others play their hands, noting the total value as a player’s cards are collected:

Using this technique will allow the player to focus on other things while the cards are being dealt—namely, acting the part of the leisure player in order to avoid detection. A hand of two high cards has a net effect of -2, two low hit with a high +1, a high and a low hit with a high -1, a blackjack is -2, etc. It requires a bit more practice to learn to count cards a hand at a time rather than one-by-one—but it will eventually become second nature, so the effort spent to learn this technique will result in less effort to use it in an actual playing situation.

How To Count Cards With Multiple Decks

Because the count is an estimation of the proportion of high cards left in the deck, it must be adjusted according to the number of decks that are used in the game. The running count keeps track of the instances—the number of high cards, as opposed to low ones, that remain in the deck. In other words, if four kings are dealt from a single deck, none remain—but if four are dealt in a double-deck game, four remain.

Two Deck Blackjack

The easiest way to estimate the “true” count from the running count is to divide the running tally by the number of decks in the game. A count of +8 is worth +8 in a single-deck game (8/1), but only +4 in a two-deck game (8/2), +2 in a four-deck game (8/4), and +1 in an eight-deck game (8/8).

A more accurate method to estimate the “true” count requires dividing the running count by the number of decks that remain to be played. If the running tally is +15 in an eight-deck game, but two decks have already been played, the correct count would be +2.5 (+15 divided by six remaining decks), and +5 (+15 divided by three remaining decks), when five decks have been played. Though the running count of instances remains the same, there proportion of higher concentration of high cards increases in a smaller deck. Again, four kings among 156 cards are more likely to show than four kings among 312 cards.

Estimating the number of decks is relatively simple to do in most casinos: glance at the discard tray. Most casino decks are almost exactly half an inch thick—so if the discard stack is about 1.5 inches tall, three decks have been dealt, and only five remain in an eight-deck game.

If the casino uses an opaque discard rack, and if you cannot sit in a position that allows you to see the stack of discards (first base is an excellent position for to be able to see the discard stack), you may have to estimate by the number of players and rounds played. Since the average hand requires 3.2 cards, a game with five hands in play (four players plus the dealer’s hands) will consume 16 cards per round—roughly one deck every three rounds played.

Single Deck Blackjack Card Counting

As an example of how the absence of cards alters the odds in the remaining deck, take this example of a single deck blackjack game in which seven players are present. In the first hand:The dealer’s upcard is a queen.

• • The first player draws six-five, doubles down and draws an eight.
  • The second player draws nine-five, hits and draws an ace, hits again and draws a seven, busting the hand.
  • The third player is dealt a pair of aces. He splits them and draws a four and a six.
  • The fourth player draws a five and an eight, hits and draws a three, hits again and draws an eight, busting.
  • The fifth draws a pair of fours, hits and draws a six, hits again and draws a four, standing on 20.
  • The sixth player draws a nine and an eight, stands on hard 17.
  • The last player draws two jacks and stands on 20.
  • The dealer turns over his hole card, a two, and hits twice, drawing threes, to stand on an 18.

After this hand is played, these cards are moved to the discard rack and the next hand is dealt with a partial deck. In the deck that remains, there are three twos; one of each three, five, and six; three sevens; two nines, fifteen ten-value cards (ten, jack, queen, king), and a single ace. In other terms, there are only six low cards (two through six) and eighteen high cards (nine, ten, ace) left, along with three sevens (which are neutral by most systems). The “count,” according to a common card counting system (High-Low) is +8, meaning that the deck is skewed heavily in favor of the players.

The effect this will have on the next hand dealt is dramatic. The table to the right demonstrates the way that the odds of the second hand compare to the one that was just dealt from a freshly shuffled deck of cards: At the start of the hand, there is a 54.00% likelihood (compared to 33.76%) of receiving a pat hand, and only a 19.33% chance (compared to 32.54%) of receiving a hand that’s likely to bust. Granted, this is true on both sides of the table—but even before the hand is dealt, players are at a distinct advantage because of the four factors listed in the previous section.

Once the cards are dealt, there is a very high likelihood that the majority, if not all, of the cards left to be used as hits will be ten-value cards. If all of the low cards show, this is an absolute certainty, and players can deviate from basic strategy accordingly. A player should surrender rather than hit his thirteen against the dealer’s seven (because the dealer certainly has 17 and the player is certain to bust) or double down on a two-three if the dealer shows a six (because the dealer is certain to bust).

Again, victory is not guaranteed. If the dealer draws a 20 and all the low cards come out in the player’s hands, it’s certain doom—any hit will bust a stiff hand and nothing will save it. Just as with any other player, the cards must turn in the counter’s favor—but because he has a reliable estimate of the outcome, he can make the best possible choice whatever the situation.

How To Count Cards Odds

Double Deck Blackjack

As with any other player, a card counter will not walk away with a heap of winnings every time he plays. Because the order of the cards is always random, and because there are equal chances of a good hand being dealt to either side of the table when the count is high, it is by no means a guaranteed winning system—but it does instruct players to wager heavily when their chances of winning are better than usual.